Low Temps, High Totals
Professional football is one sport that brings up images of games played in nasty conditions. Whether it's the Packers and their Cheeseheads on the Frozen Tundra, the Buffalo Bills playing in a snowstorm or the Purple People Eaters of days gone by, we can easily picture players running around in conditions that makes up more than happy to be inside.There are plenty of 10-7 type games when teams play in the freezing cold, but there are even more that see a fair number of points scored, which is the purpose of this article.
The concept is simple. Look to be the over in games playing in the extreme cold. That's all there is to it. Your definition of extreme cold may be slightly different than mine, so we'll use three different benchmarks.
If we were to use 32 degrees as our cutoff point, we would see that the overs are 63-40-1, which is good for a 61.1 percent winning ratio since the start of the 2006 season.
If we want to lower our benchmark to 29 degrees or lower, the overs would have been 44-27-1, which comes out to 61.9 percent.
Finally, for those who don't believe it's cold until the temperatures reach the teens or lower, we'd see that games played in temeratures 19 degrees or less are 17-7 to the over, which is 70.8 percent, although there are far fewer plays.
From a net unit standpoint, the 32 degree benchmark is the most profitable, which is what it's all about.
Temperatures are definitely something worth watching in the upcoming season.
