NFL Road Team Betting
One of the quickest ways to determine how long a person has been betting is to ask what type of winning percentage they would be happy with. Those fairly new to the sports gambling world will usually answer 60-percent, or higher, while those who have been betting are more likely to respond with 55-percent. After all, 55-percent winners will make you money in the long run, which is more than the vast majority of sports bettors will accomplish.
The reason I bring that up is to remind sports bettors not to overlook those 55-percent advantages. If you have a 55-percent chance of covering the point spread on any game, you should be betting on it. At the very least, you should not be wagering against the 55-percent advantages.
That leads us to a simple trend that has yielded more than 55-percent winners over the years, and that is to merely wager on road teams in the second or third game of back-to-back road games provided they lost their previous game on the road.
Most NFL teams will play back-to-back road games between one and three times during the season, while occasionally there will be three straight road games for a team, usually if there is conflicting use of the stadium, such as when it shares with a baseball team.
If a team lost on the road its last game, it has a better than average chance of covering its next game on the road. (Do not count teams with a bye week scheduled in between its two road games.)
The rationale behind the trend makes sense, in that it is difficult to win on the road, but most teams will manage to win a few games away from the comforts of home. Those teams which lose in one week generally give a bit more effort in the next road game, and often receive a point or two advantage in the point spread, as it just lost on the road.
Teams that won on the road are a 50-50 proposition the next road game, so we're going to concentrate on the teams that lost in the previous road game.
Since 2006, teams in this situation are 43-29 against the point spread, or 59.7-percent winners. I have seen one sample that said these teams were 112-79 (58.6-percent) over a longer stretch, but have just back-tracked since the 2006 season and will use those numbers here.
The trend was just 20-17 in 2007, which is still a money-making 54.1-percent, and was a solid 19-10 in 2006. So far, the trend has gone 4-2 in the 2008 season.
As always, blindly betting on trends or angles is never a good idea, but it's usually not wise to buck trends that have proven track record. A trend that keeps you off of a loser is 10-percent more valuable than a trend that points you to the winner, as that 10-percent is the bookmaker's vigorish that a bettor is required to pay.
So next time you find a road team that is just coming off a loss, be very careful about betting against it, and if your other handicapping methods say that team is a good bet, you have an additional reason to make a wager on them.
