The NFL Preseason and Mistakes
The NFL preseason is a time for team to get the kinks out, so invariably mistakes are going to be made. From an NFL coaches point of view, the biggest mistake that a team can make are turnovers.Coaches typically get frustrated over penalties, but nothing drives a coaching staff more crazy than giving the ball to the opposition. In the preseason, when those types of mistakes are made in one game, a great deal of time is spent the following week to correct that.
For the purposes of this article, what we're looking for are teams that had the other aspects of its game working, but committed the most turnovers in its most recent game. We'll define the other aspects of its game working by out-gaining the opposition in yardage.
Over the past eight seasons, teams that out-gained their opponent, but committed more turnovers were 44-30 (59.5%) against the spread in their next game when they were an underdog in their next game. These same teams were close to 50-50 when made the favorite, so again, we see the value of taking the underdogs in the preseason.
As is, the method is worth paying attention to, as you don't want to bucking a trend that is hitting 60 percent over an eight-year period. But we can fine-tine a bit to increase our winning percentage, although to do so will cut back on the number of plays.
First, if we expand the definition of "the other aspects of its game working" to include not only yardage, but also time of possession, we'll see our record improve to 32-19, which is a healthy 62.7%.
The second factor that showed an increase in winning percentage is when these teams were coming off a short week, meaning they were returning to the field in five days or less. These teams went 12-4 against the spread and were 10-2 against the number if you also added the time of possession requirement.
The number of games for the short week sample is a bit on the small side, so I wouldn't give a whole lot of weight to it just yet. It's one of those trends that should be followed to see how it stands up over a few more years.
But the sample size is decent for the first add-on, which is the time of possession requirement. The increase in winning percentage makes up for the reduction in playable games, so that betting the teams with the time of possession advantage is more profitable in terms of net units won.
So to sum up, we're looking for underdogs who out-gained their opponent last game, while also having a time of possession advantage, but had more turnovers. These teams have proven to be good bets in the past and should continue to be so in the future.
