Super Bowl Betting - Ask the Experts
So far, most of our articles about Super Bowl betting have dealt with the different wagering opportunities sports gamblers have. That's about to change, as we'll now get to the question everybody's asking, which is naturally, "Who do I bet on?"
We've asked some pretty sharp sports betting minds that exact question and here is what they had to say about the Super Bowl.
Michael Seaton, The Spread.com
"The Arizona Cardinals will unfortunately lose their bid to become champions of Super Bowl XLIII because they have a horrible defense.
Offense is sexy, but defense wins championships. It’s cliché, but this is one time where it’s going to prove all to true.
While Arizona does have considerable offensive power, they have one of the worst defenses in the league. They have allowed 24 or more points 11 times this season and have allowed more than 35 points four times. You can’t win Championships allowing teams to put up that many points on a consistent basis.
Even with the 7 points currently being given by oddsmakers, when you are going against a team in Pittsburgh that has allowed less than 14 points 10 times including a shut out against Cleveland in their regular season finale it is very unlikely that Arizona can score enough points to win the side in the 2009 Super Bowl.
If the numbers aren’t enough for you and you still need more convincing that the Steelers are the play I have just two words for you… Troy Polamalu. This guy is like having two extra players on your defense and is the secret weapon that Pittsburgh will rely on to neutralize Kurt Warner.
That is why I am going to be taking the Pittsburgh Steelers -7 in Super Bowl 43."
The Spread (www.thespread.com) is one of those sites sports bettors should visit on a daily basis, as they have it all. Bettors will find everything from odds, injuries, statistics, previews, public betting patterns, and much more. Read our write-up of The Spread at Review of The Spread Website.
Jim Barnes, Jim Barnes Sports
"The Super Bowl is the kind of wagering activity that I never recommend getting involved in. My experience has convinced me that the more a game is hyped and the more the public wants to invest, the worst the actual proposition.
I would lean toward Pittsburgh and the "over," but not as a recommendation. The true value in sports is in the regular season, I would not wager on a "hype game" unless you just have to have something going than make it very small.
The NFL Super Bowl, World Series, NBA Finals and World Cup as well as Triple Crown events never carry "much wagering value." So I guess my recommendation is "Pass."
Jim Barnes is considered one of the true pioneers of the sports handicapping industry. Barnes' website, Jim Barnes Sports, which contains his free Daily Sports Forecast, is a must stop for sports bettors each and every day. Find out more about this handicapping legend at Jim Barnes.
David Payne, Covers.com
"The best bet on the board in my opinion is Steelers over 27.5 points. Pittsburgh still has a reputation of a grind-it-offense that relies heavily on its defense.
Only half of that is true.
The Steelers’ offense has been much more explosive down the stretch.. They're averaging 29.6 points in their last four games, with only the Ravens' defense and snowy conditions being able to hold them under 30. The Cardinals' defense is nowhere near as good as the Ravens' defense.
I'm also counting on the Pittsburgh defense setting up a score or two by getting to fumble-prone Kurt Warner.
A Santonio Holmes' punt return TD wouldn’t hurt my cause, either.
Best of luck everyone."
David Payne is a columnist for Covers.com, who is passionate about the strategy of sports betting. Covers.com is one of the leading online sports handicapping sites.
Edward Golden, Right Angle Sports
"Put me down for Under 46.5 with hopes that the Arizona defense can force a timely turnover or two."
Edward Golden will be the first to admit that his area of expertise does not include the NFL, as he does not even handicap the sport. But there are few sports handicappers who are more feared by bookmakers than Golden when it comes to college sports and the WNBA. Right Angle Sports' totals plays are notorious for moving the line three or four points immediately after they are released. Read our write-up of Golden's Right Angle Sports at Right Angle Sports.
Daniel Fabrizio, Sports Insights
"SportsInsights.com ("SIs") believes in a contrarian approach to sports investing and seeks out value in the sports marketplace. One of the key parameters to SportsInsights' quantitative approach to sports betting is our proprietary sports betting percentages, compiled from several online sportsbooks. The betting percentages tell us the percentage of bets on each side of a bet. Our research has shown that it normally pays to "fade" the public or "bet against the public."
The public typically likes taking the favorite in most sports events. However, this year's Superbowl shows the public loving the Arizona Cardinals and their Cinderella march to the Superbowl. This is an interesting departure for the public and shows how much "value" there might be on the Steelers. This contrarian factor of "fading" the Public points to the Steelers.
Edge: Pittsburgh Steelers
Current Betting Percentages on the Super Bowl
Pittsburgh Steelers 42%
Arizona Cardinals 58%
Smart Money and Point Spread Line Movement
SportsInsights uses another indicator that we call "Smart Money Analysis."
This method is more selective but also more powerful because historically, it has had a better winning percentage than using "betting percentages" as a standalone indicator.
For the Super Bowl, the "generally-available" line opened at Pittsburgh -6.5. As we saw above, early Super Bowl betting has most of the bets (about 60-percent) coming in on the underdog Arizona Cardinals. Even with the majority of bets landing on Arizona, the line has inched up to Pittsburgh -7. This is a relatively large move in the NFL – especially near a "key number" like 7.
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