Super Bowl Betting - Ask the Experts

Daniel Fabrizio, Sports Insights

Intangibles and Other Contrarian Angles

For example, are there some extraneous factors that make a bet seem over-valued or under-valued? We try to "buy low and sell high" by using a "what-have-you-done-for-me-lately?" factor. That is, the public tends to exaggerate the importance of recent events.

Arizona's offense has been pounding the opposition. After being one of the highest-scoring teams during the regular season, Kurt Warner and crew have rung up more than 30 points in each of their playoff match-ups. Warner and his receivers look like they are playing pick-up football against a bunch of five-year-olds! The public loves offense and this is another reason we feel that Arizona is currently over-valued. We’ll "sell" the Cardinals at a recent "high."

During the early part of the regular season, the media focused on teams like Tennessee and both New York teams as "Super Bowl favorites." Later in the season, fans saw teams like the Eagles, the Chargers, and the Colts streak into the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Steelers played "steady football" all season long and "quietly" (if you can call their defense quiet) ran up a 12-4 record, yielding a league-low 223 points.

Some of the intangibles point to "selling" the Cardinals at a "high" and "buying" a great Steelers team that avoided being over-hyped.
Edge: Pittsburgh Steelers

Quick Analysis of Recent Super Bowl Scores

• Three out of the last five Super Bowls were settled by a field goal or less.
• Four out of the last seven Super Bowls were settled by a field goal or less.
• Six out the last 11 Super Bowls were settled by a touchdown or less.
  

  
  

  We normally hate giving seven points or more (or even taking a favorite). However, we let the numbers do the talking. And, yet again, the recent history of Super Bowls (and an emphasis on shorter-term events) might be giving us some value. Over the much larger sample size of 42 Superbowl games:
  

  29 out of 42 games have been settled by more than a touchdown.
  

  Football fans seem to be forgetting how we used to see lopsided (and sadly, sometimes boring) Super Bowls. This is giving us some value as the general Public is taking the points in this Superbowl.
  Edge: Pittsburgh Steelers
  

  Almost all of our regular angles and analysis of the "sports marketplace" point to contrarian value on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Remember to "shop for the best line" because you can still get Pittsburgh -6.5 if you check around. Does defense win championships? We'll see in a few days."
  

  Long-time readers of the site know my position of going against the public whenever possible and no website makes it as easy to do exactly that than Sports Insights (www.sportsinsights.com). Read our review of the site at Review of SportsInsights.com.
  

  Mark Franco, Franco Sports

  "I see this game playing out to over the total with lots of passing by both teams and the potential to have some very quick scoring with some big plays downfield.
  

  The Cardinals have put up points all season and also given up a ton on defense. As great as they have been all season the Pittsburgh defense will bend in this game and give up some big plays.
  

  The Steelers have scored 89 points in their last three games which is their most productive three game output of the season. The Steelers also will want to score early and often versus a middle of the road defense in Arizona.
  

  Play OVER 46.5 in Super Bowl XLIII.
  

  Mark Franco is the owner of the Las-Vegas based sports service, Franco Sports Franco helped start VegasInsider in 1997, and has a fifth-place finish in the prestigious Hilton Super Book Contest to his credit. He is a frequent guest on sports talk shows and appears regularly in the Las Vegas Review-Journal.
  

  Hopefully these tips will point you in the right direction when it comes time to place your wagers on the Super Bowl.
  

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