Weather and NFL Betting
One of the great mysteries when it comes to betting professional football is how so many people can think nothing of placing a $500 wager on a game, yet can't spend 30 seconds to view a weather report. The weather does have an impact not only in how the game is played, but on the betting line and bettors should be willing to spend a bit of time looking at that aspect of the game.
Naturally, the weather plays a bigger effect on game later in the season, and is one reason why totals and point spreads will move on game day. Snow, freezing rain, and extremely cold temperatures will generally lower the total two or three points, although many times that isn't enough.
The majority of NFL teams do most of their damage through the air and it's only logical that the passing game is affected by adverse weather more than the ground game. Not only is the ball harder to catch in cold, nasty weather, it's also more difficult for quarterbacks to throw.
If you look at the results from December home games from the cold weather teams (Buffalo, Chicago, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Denver, Green Bay, New England, Pittsburgh) a bettor would find that nine games went over the total and 13 games went under the total. Cold weather teams are those which play in a city where the average temperature is 35 degrees or lower in December.
Bettors probably could have increased their winning percentage slightly, as not all of those games were played in adverse conditions, but the cold weather does have an effect.
Another area in which bettors should benefit from knowing the weather involves late-season road games by non-cold weather, non-playoff teams. These teams were just 2-6 against the point spread in 2007.
It figures a team having a disappointing season isn't too thrilled to be playing in nasty weather conditions. With nothing to play for, these teams will often go through the motions and are more focused on trying to stay warm than they are on trying to win a football game. The coldness factor is even compounded in that we are keying on non-cold weather teams, which aren't used to the conditions nearly as much as a team used to playing in cold weather.
Bettors shouldn't rush to make plays just because of the weather conditions, but instead should treat each game on an individual basis, but by being aware of cold-weather tendencies, the informed bettor does have a worthwhile advantage.
