NFL Coaches and the Preseason

NFL Coaches and the Preseason

One avenue we haven't touched upon much in our articles dealing with betting the NFL preseason is the coaches. The coaches do play an important role when it comes to preseason football and they are the ones who makes some of our systems, such as NFL Preseason Home Underdogs Deciphered hold true to form.

When a coach wants to win a preseason game they can do so more often than not. There are plenty of times when a coach wants to come away from a preseason game victorious and the players simply don't execute and they lose.

But there is a definite difference of opinion in regards to coaches and the importance of winning in the preseason, so we'll look at the head coaches in each division and their records against the spread beginning with the 2003 season. The first numbers you will see is the coach's record ATS, followed by the team's over-under numbers.

AFC East

Buffalo Bills: Chan Gailey 2-2, 4-0
Miami Dolphins: Tony Sparano 7-4-1, 3-9
New England Patriots: Bill Belechick 15-14-3, 16-16
New York Jets: Rex Ryan 5-3, 6-2

The first thing that jumps out here are some of the numbers in relation to totals. To my knowledge there have never been any in-depth studies pertaining to coaches and totals, but it is definitely something that looks to have possibilities.

While Sparano has a solid 7-4-1 record it should be noted that he was just 1-3 last year. He obviously feels a little more comfortable in Miami now than in his first two years when the team made an effort to win all of its preseason games.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens: John Harbaugh 7-5, 3-9
Cincinnati Bengals: Marvin Lewis 17-15-1, 17-15-1
Cleveland Browns: Pat Shurmur First Year
Pittsburgh Steelers: Mike Tomlin 10-7, 4-12-1

Not much really stands out here, although it's interesting to note that the two teams noted for their defense, Baltimore and Pittsburgh, have gone under the total at a 75-percent clip.

AFC South

Houston Texans: Gary Kubiak 10-8-2, 14-6
Indianapolis Colts: Jim Coldwell 2-6, 6-2
Jacksonville Jaguars: Jack Del Rio 20-11-1, 16-15-1
Tennessee Titans: Mike Munchak First Year

It's obvious that Del Rio places a bit of importance on winning in the preseason, which one would expect from the feisty former linebacker. We also have the reverse situation of the AFC North. The two teams here noted for their potent offense, Houston and Indianapolis, have both gone over 70-percent of the time.

AFC West

Denver Broncos: John Fox 14-17-1, 15-16-1
Kansas City Chiefs: Todd Haley 0-7-1, 1-7
Oakland Raiders: Hue Jackson First Year
San Diego Chargers: Norv Turner 10-11-3, 11-13

Haley is an interesting case in Kansas City, as he has failed to cover the point spread in two years, but I'm not sure it's entirely due to lack of effort. The Chiefs have lost four games by five points or less and haven't been blown out in any of their losses.

NFC East

DallasCowboys: Jason Garrett First Year
New York Giants: Tom Coughlin 13-12-3, 13-15
Philadelphia Eagles: Andy Reid 13-20, 20-13
Washington Redskins: Mike Shanahan 16-12-1, 14-15

Reid obviouslly doesn't place a lot of importance in preseason games, but it was surprising to see the Eagles go over the total such a high percentage of the time.

NFC North

Chicago Bears: Lovie Smith 11-16-2, 15-14
Detroit Lions: Jim Schwartz 5-3, 4-4
Green Bay Packers: Mike McCarthy 10-9-1, 15-5
Minnesota Vikings: Leslie Frazier First Year

Several things jump out here, especially Green Bay's tendency to go over in the preseason. Smith's poor record isn't much of a surprise as he is stable enough with his job not to worry about the preseason.

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons: Mike Smith 7-4-1, 4-8
Carolina Panthers: Ron Rivera First Year
New Orleans Saints: Sean Payton 12-9, 9-10-2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Raheem Morris 4-4, 5-3

Not a whole lot here, other than Atlanta doing well against the spread and going under. New Orleans was a slight surprise, as you would expect a few more of their games to have gone over the total based on what some of the AFC teams that were offensive-minded had done.

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals: Ken Wisenhunt 6-10, 7-9
St. Louis Rams: Steve Spagnuolo 6-2, 6-2
San Francisco 49ers: Jim Harbaugh First Year
Seattle Seahawks: Pete Carroll 0-3-1, 3-1

Unlike many new coaches, Carroll doesn't appear to have been too interested in the preseason, while Spagnuolo is a solid 6-2 against the number. Wisenhunt has a poor overall record, but with the team slipping he did put a little more emphasis on he preseason last year and went 3-1.

New Coaches

There are a number of new coaches in the league this year. Some are well-known, such as Jim Harbaugh and Jason Garrett, while others like Hue Jackson and Pat Shurmur are not. It wouldn't be too surprising to see Jackson and Shurmur put a little more emphasis on the preseason games than several of their rookie counterparts.

As mentioned earlier, the tendency of certain coaches to go over the total or under the total is something that bears watching, especially in games where two coaches have both gone either over or under.