The old adage "It's Better to Be Lucky Than Good" certainly came true for a number of college football bettors on Saturday, including my friends at Westcoast Sports Service. After starting the football season an impressive 13-6-1 against the point spread, the guys turned around and had a miserable 2-5 day on Saturday. What happened? Well, a closer look at the games in question shows that it was bad luck more than bad handicapping that led to defeat.
The two wins for the guys, Marshall +8 (an outright winner) and Toledo +7 (a one-point loser in double OT) were clearly the right sides, but what about the losses?
Start with San Jose St. +8 against Stanford in a game that saw the Spartans lead 10-7 at halftime. Stanford gained the lead on a pair of third quarter field goals to lead 13-10 with under five minutes remaining, but a San Jose State fumble on its own 7-yard line gave Stanford backers new hope. San Jose St. forced a field goal to keep the score 16-10 and it looked good for SJ State backers.
The Spartans moved the ball to their 43-yard line, but a sack on fourth down gave Stanford the ball on the Spartans 33 with 1:41 remaining. After picking up a pair of first downs, Stanford could have just run out the clock by taking a knee, but elected to try and score and pushed the spread-covering touchdown into the end zone with 9 seconds left.
Then there was Utah -9.5, as the Utes won by seven points in a game that Utah out-gained Air Force 440-191. But four turnovers, two missed field goals and an Air Force fumble return for a touchdown allowed the Falcons to get the point spread cover.
They also had North Carolina -3, as the Tar Heels were unable to hang on to a 17-3 third quarter lead and lost 20-17. North Carolina had four turnovers, a missed field goal and 14 penalties for 121 yards in a game they probably should have won.
Then there was Auburn +2.5, which allowed an 18-yard TD pass on 2nd-and-1 with just over a minute to play to allow LSU to win 26-21. A stop on the pass play probably sees LSU run for the first down on third down and run the ball into the middle of the field on first down to set up the game-winning field goal.
The final loss was Rutgers -6, as the Scarlet Knights were unable to hang on to a 14-6 halftime lead and were outplayed in the second half, losing 23-21 after a late Navy field goal.
Westcoast should have been 4-3 at worst, and could easily have gone 5-2, but luck wasn't on their side yesterday.
The reason I tell you this isn't to make excuses for the guys, as they will be the first ones to tell you it was a bad day regardless of how the losses occurred, but to show you how difficult it actually is to hit 60-percent, or better, over the long run. Simply put, there will be games you definitely have the right side on, but end up losing regardless.
Many years ago, a well-known handicapper staed that out of 100 games, 50-percent of them will be decided (against the point spread) by sheer luck. Out of the other 50, a bettor would need to win 35 of them to reach the 60-percent plateau. That's easier said than done.
I'd expect Westcoast to bounce back from Saturday's debacle during the next week and you can find their selections in the forum for free through the end of September.
To visit the forum, click on the "My Forum" link underneath my picture, or you can click here and scroll down to the Handicapping section where the system selections are posted.
Photo: Eli Manning is developing into a top-notch quarterback in the NFL. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
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