College Football Bowl Report No. 4New Year's Day isn't quite what it used to be for college football fans, as there are a number of games played afterwards, but it still has some decent match-ups on the day.
Looking at the
The college football power ratings shows Mississippi State+2 just sneaking in there as a play. The power rating plays went 1-1 last report and 1-0 the previous report. There were no plays the first report.
There are six games on New Year's Day and those will be the ones we'll look at here. Next report will look at the games Jan. 2 through Jan. 6 and have something just on the national championship game.
The GamesHeart of Dallas Bowl: If you like offense, this is the game for you, as it features a pair of high-scoring offenses, along with a pair of defenses that give up close to 30 points a game. The Cowboys are clearly the better team, but it's always risky to lay 17 points in a bowl game, even against a 6-6 team. The total is a bit on the high side at 70, but have a notion that could very well be the way to go in this one.
Gator Bowl: Mississippi State opened as 2-point favorites now Northwestern is favored by two. The total has climbed two points to 53.5.
Mississippi State was dominant against the middle-of-the-road teams this season and struggled against the big dogs of the SEC, but feel Northwestern resembles a middle-of-the-road SEC team more than an Alabama, Texas A&M or LSU. Can't overlook the fine job Fitzgerald has done with the Wildcats, so will give Mississippi State the slightest of edges.
Outback Bowl: Interesting contest between South Carolina and Michigan. South Carolina is favored by five with a total of 47.5. This game is a tough one, but will side with the SEC squad.
Capital One Bowl: The Bulldogs still have to be wondering what might have been against Alabama in the SEC title game, so not about to lay nine points with Georgia. Not real thrilled with Nebraska, especially after their pasting at the hands of Wisconsin in the Big 10 title game.
Both teams can run the ball a bit and neither is particularly adept at stopping the run. Both teams allowed more than 175 yards on the ground during the season and over 4.0 yards per carry. Hoping to see that trend continue a bit, which should see more rushing attempts than normal, so I'll lean to the under 61.
Rose Bowl: Two somewhat similar teams, but can't pass up Wisconsin+6 to get the cover against Stanford. The total is 47.5 and would think the under may be the way to go, but will likely stay away.
Orange Bowl: If you play this game and are on the wrong side, you're going to feel stupid. It doesn't matter which team you take, you'll feel dumb, as you should have known Florida State was going to clobber Northern Illinois or you should have known that 13.5 points is too many to give a 12-1 team regardless of which conference they're from, especially when the team laying the points just struggled to defeat a .500 team.
Yes, there may have been more deserving team than Northern Illinois for this game, but complaining about it won't do a bit of good.
If forced to take a stand, I would probably lean to the over, but not real thrilled with either a side or a total in this oneAll-in-all, a fairly tough day with probably just a couple of the games worth playing. Good luck.