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NFL Week 11 Report


Updated November 16, 2012

NFL Week 11 Report

The NFL Power Ratings have been updated and there a few plays this week.
Power Rating Plays for the Week: 7* New England-9, Houston-15. 5* Pitt+3.5.

We will be tracking the Dudley Method and the Total Dudley Method throughout the year and so far all of the systems have been spinning their wheels. We would certainly like to see them start to pick up steam or falter, as there is nothing worse than a 50-50 system, as a method that losses consistently is just as good as one that wins on a regular basis.

We'll list this week's plays, as well as last week's records and season-to-date records.

Dudley Sides (1-3, 14-19): Jets+3.5, Raiders+4.5, Steelers+3.5.

Dudley Totals (3-6, 16-22-1): Falcons under 44, Patriots under 53.5, Steelers over 40.

Total Dudley Sides (1-2, 6-10):none.
Total Dudley Totals (0-2, 5-12): Green Bay under 52, Jets over 38.5, New England under 53.5, Steelers over 40.

YPP Power Ratings (1-3, 17-22): Redskins-3.5, Tampa-1.5, Browns+8.

Naturally, the Steelers plays are using the stats that Ben Roethlisberger put up and should be looked at accordingly.

The Games

New York Jets at St. Louis: The Jets are really struggling, so naturally the latest fiasco to break in the Big Apple is all about the team's backup quarterback, Tim Tebow. Calling the guy "terrible" is fine, just put your name to it and don't stop with Timmy. One a team that's 3-6, I'm sure you find more terrible players than just the second-string QB.

That said, this is a great spot for the Jets, who have been humiliated on and off the field recently. They may find a way to lose this game outright, but believe they can stay within the spread.

Jacksonville at Houston: The Jaguars are a perfect 4-0 against the spread away from home this year and 0-5 ATS when playing in front of the home crowd. That streak may continue here, as the Jags are being given more than two touchdowns, which is a tough number to lay in the NFL.

Cleveland at Dallas: Dallas has been a bit of a thorn in my side this year, as I've been wrong more often than not when trying to predict how Jerry Jones' boys will play. The Cowboys are giving up a lot of points to a team that isn't all that bad defensively and can stay within a touchdown.

Arizona at Atlanta: The walls have come crashing down on the Cardinals after their fast start, but the boys from the desert can still play some defense, especially against the pass. The line dropped from Atlanta-10 to Atlanta-9.5, which is a fairly significant move, as 10 is a key number. Lean towards the Cardinals to get the cover.

San Diego at Denver: A rematch of the nationally televised game that saw Denver's big comeback, but now the Broncos are laying 7.5 points. The Chargers have erratic as of late, but fall into a decent situation here that says to take road teams off of a road loss, so I'll give the Chargers the nod in this one.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh: Ben Roethlisberger is a decent quarterback, but is her really worth a full seven points on the line? The oddsmakers say yes, I say no, so will side with the Steelers in this one. Pittsburgh opened -3.5 and the total was 46 when the game first opened. With Byron Leftwich playing for Pittsburgh, the line has shifted to Baltimore-3.5 and a total of 40.

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