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NFL Week Thirteen Report


Updated December 01, 2012

NFL Week Thirteen Report

This week's NFL schedule definitely fits the bill of the good, the bad and the ugly, as games range from interesting match-ups between Pittsburgh and Baltimore all the way to a dreadful encounter between the Cardinals and the Jets.

The NFL Power Ratings have been updated and just the Eagles qualify as a 5* play this week.

Last week, the power rating plays were just 1-3, but as was pointed out, three of those teams had qualified only because of quarterback injuries, a situation the Eagles fall into this week.

We will be tracking the Dudley Method and the Total Dudley Method throughout the year and so far all of the systems are in the red. If they manage to stay there, I will do some back-testing for a year or two and we may have a worthwhile advantage by going against those plays, which does make sense in an odd way.

The premise behind the Dudley Method was that its strength resided in the fact that just the past four games worth of statistics were used, which would tend to put the betting public-which has a short memory-on many of the same teams. If there is one sport where the public falters it's the NFL, which also happens to be the only sport where the sportsbooks are really worried about the betting public due to the amount of money wagered.

We'll list this week's plays, as well as last week's records and season-to-date records.

Dudley Sides (2-3-1, 18-23-1): Bears-4, Pats-9, Titans+6.5.

Dudley Totals (4-4, 21-28-1): Falcons under 56, Bears over 37.5, Panthers under 40.5, Lions under 51, Pats over 51.

Total Dudley Sides (0-1-1, 6-11-1): Pats-9, Titans+6.5, Washington+2.5.

Total Dudley Totals (1-1, 8-15): Atlanta under 56, Bears over 37.5, Jets over 37, Dallas over 43, NYG under 51.

YPP Power Ratings (2-0, 22-22): Tampa Bay+7.

Interestingly, the YPP power ratings, which take season-to-date statistics into account, is the only system at .500, having won its last five games, even though it's still in the red.

The Games

Seattle at Chicago: The Bears are coming into this game off an impressive win over the Vikings, while Seattle couldn't hold on against Miami and a bad penalty allowed the Dolphins to escape with the win. The Bears are a little banged up, although that hasn't stopped the public from backing Chicago. The Bears seem like the logical choice in this one, given Seattle's road woes, which makes me think the Seahawks are the right side.

Tampa Bay at Denver: The Buccaneers have been one of the surprise teams in the NFL season and are fourth in the league in scoring, just behind Denver. Defensively, Tampa hasn't been all that great, which could spell trouble against Denver. The Broncos weren't very impressive against Kansas City last week and should rebound in this spot. Hate to lay a touchdown in the NFL, but believe Denver is the way to go.

Houston at Tennessee: Things don't always make sense in the NFL. If they did the bettors would be rich and the bookies would be broke. That's not the case.

Here, we have a Houston team with a few extra days to rest taking on a Titans squad that has been a bit of a disppointment and laying less than a touchdown, as the line is currently 6.5. Houston seems like a good wager on the surface, which will put me on the Titans.

Slight Leans

A bit of a strange week, as there were other games I wrestled with. They were Green Bay over 46.5, Detroit -4.5, Miami +9, Miami over 51 and the Washington Redskins +2.5 on Monday night.

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