Betting Baseball Day and Night
One of the earliest things I was taught about baseball betting was that day games were higher scoring than night games and were ideal for making bets on the game to go over the total. Night games, on the other hand, were lower scoring, and naturally, were better suited to go under the total.
The logic behind the concept made sense, in that was considered easier for the hitters to see the ball during the daytime and the air was generally thinner, which would make the ball carry better. Likewise, it was harder for the hitters to pick up the baseball during games played under the lights and the air was heavier, so the ball wouldn't carry as far.
There were a number of betting systems that used these as the foundation for making over/under wagers. Bettors were supposed to wager over the total in day games that involved two finesse pitchers. The logic behind the wager was that pitchers who didn't throw hard and record a lot of strikeouts would have even more difficulty in the daytime.
The other side of the system had bettors wagering under the total when two strikeout pitchers would square off against each other under the lights. The premise naturally being that it was harder for hitters to pick up the ball and they would have even less time to react against hard-throwing pitchers.
The system had a nice run of success back in its day, but as is the case with many of the old sports gambling systems, no longer can be counted on for continued profits.
Over the last four years, starting pitchers have Earned Run Averages that are extremely close to each other for daytime and nighttime games. Naturally, there are some exceptions like Jake Peavy, who has an ERA nearly two runs better at night, while on the other hand a pitcher like Pedro Martinez has an ERA that is well over a run better when throwing in the daytime, despite being a power pitcher, at least before his injury problems.
The basic fact is there are some pitchers who have better numbers in the day and some who have performed better at night regardless if they are finesse pitchers or power pitchers and there doesn't appear to be any real advantage one way or the other.
One interesting fact that did pop up was that there was a slight advantage to home teams in the daytime, as they won at a slightly higher clip (57-percent vs. 55-percent) than they do during night games. The home teams didn't win at a high enough ratio to be considered a worthwhile system, but it is something baseball bettors may want to store away for future reference.
