Baseball Betting - Betting the 2007 World Series
The 2007 World Series between the Boston Red Sox and Colorado Rockies is one of the more intriguing series to be played in recent memory. Nowhere else will you find a team that has won 21 of its last 22 games such a prohibitive underdog as the Rockies, but it's still difficult to make a case for betting against the Red Sox.
The Red Sox have been installed as greater than a 2-to-1 favorite, and laying those kind of odds against a hot team like the Rockies is a sure way of losing money over the long run. Still, many bettors remember how the Red Sox mowed over the opposition in their last World Series appearance, so the odds may be justified. Bet Jamaica has the Red Sox at - 235, with bettors being able to take + 195 on the Rockies, while Intertops is offering ridiculous odds of the Red Sox - 250 and the Rockies + 175. That right there should show the importance of having more than one place to make your wagers.
Both the Rockies and the Red Sox played in hitter-friendly parks, making each team's overall statistics a bit skewed, so it's important to look at home and away averages for both teams before placing a bet.
When playing in Fenway Park, the Red Sox have a team average of .297 and scored 472 runs in 81 games. Things weren't quite as easy for Boston on the road, however, as the Red Sox saw their batting average drop to just .262 and the team scored 395 runs. Colorado hit an impressive .298 at home and scored 478 runs, but hit just .261 on the road and scored 382 runs. The Rockies also hit 35 fewer home runs on the road than they did at home.
Pitching stats followed the same pattern, as the Rockies had a 4.29 team ERA on the road and a 4.34 team ERA at home, while the Red Sox had an impressive 3.59 team ERA on the road, the best in baseball, compared to 4.13 at home.
The two teams appear to be pretty evenly matched in the hitting department, while the Red Sox get the edge in the pitching department. The Rockies and the Red Sox are two of the best fielding teams in baseball, as Colorado finished first in fielding percentage and Boston was third.
Another factor to consider is the nine-day layoff and how it will affect the Rockies. Colorado may have practiced extensively during its mini-break, but nothing is quite the same as playing in a live game. Needing a game or two to get its rhythm back normally wouldn't be a major factor, but when a team is playing in a best-of-7 series, it becomes crucial.
This is one of the most difficult situations to bet, as the team with the greatest chance of winning, the Red Sox, have basically been priced beyond betting. The Red Sox would probably win a best-of-7 match-up with Rockies six or seven out of 10 times, but if a bettor is forced to lay - 235 on the Red Sox, it becomes a losing proposition over time. There may be a slight bit of long term value on the Rockies, but their layoff is enough to make backing them a bit of a risky proposition.
If you're going to bet on the World Series, the best strategy is probably to look at the over/unders, as in the last 11 World Series there have been 26 games that went over the total and 37 that have gone under the total. As the old gambling adage says, if you bet the underdogs and the unders, you'll never go broke.
