Betting the Sweet 16 Games
There are eight NCAA Tournament games to be played over the next two days and many sports bettors will find themselves with wagers on the game, regardless if they have a strong opinion or not. There's nothing wrong with that as long as bettors remember to differentiate between their good bets and their fun bets. The failure to do this one simple factor is the downfall of many sports bettors, especially when it comes to televised games.
As expected, when you games involving two good teams, the underdogs are always solid bets, although blindly wagering on all of the underdogs would have yielded a break-even 44-40 record with several ties and "pick 'em" over recent years.
Underdogs have been better bets when the field is narrowed down to eight teams, as the underdogs have covered 26 out of 42 times.
Here's is a look at each of the eight Sweet Games, as we'll try to uncover a worthwhile wager or two.
Thursday's Games
Xavier vs. PittsburghThe Panthers are favored by seven points in this game and the total is 138.5.
All of the ratings systems I use have the Panthers anywhere from a 4.5- to 7.5-point favorite in this game, giving me the slightest of leans to the underdog, but certainly not enough to place a wager on.
The teams have combined for 13 overs and 20 unders on the road and are 2-10 to the unders on neutral courts, so I'd give a decent look at the under, even though the line is right about where it should be, if not a point or two lower than my figures indicate.
Villanova vs. Duke
Duke is favored by two points and the total is 148 in what should be a pretty good game.
From a statistical standpoint, I have Duke winning anywhere from 1 to 3.5 points, so there's no play, although I do have the Blue Devils coming out on top in all of the systems. My predicted total on the game is 145.5, so there isn't much leeway from that standpoint, as well.
Purdue vs. Connecticut
The Huskies are favored by 6.5 points and the total is 134.
Although the Huskies saw just 10 out of 28 games go over the total, half of those overs came on neutral courts, where just one game went under. Surprisingly, Purdue saw 17 games go over the total and 16 go under.
From a numbers standpoint, I have the game at 131 points, giving a slight lean to the under, although it's difficult to buck U Conn's over trend.
I have the Huskies winning between 6 and 8 points on all my numbers, so I'll likely stay away from the side.
Memphis vs. Missouri
Memphis is favored by 4.5 points and the total has been bet up to 141.
As much as I like Memphis, which was my pick to win the tournament, my numbers have Missouri putting up a solid fight, with Memphis coming out on top from anywhere between one and two points. I'm likely to pass the game, but would lean to the underdog if forced to choose.
Likewise, I'd lean to the under if forced to play the game, but will be likely to stay away, as my numbers are pretty close to the total.
Friday's Games
Arizona vs. Louisville Louisville is favored by nine and the total is 139.
I have Louisville winning this game between 7 and 10 points, so will probably stay away from the side, although such a large underdog is always tempting in a spot like this.
From a totals standpoint, the number is right where it should be, although both teams have the tendency to play lower-scoring games on the road.
Syracuse vs. Oklahoma
Oklahoma is favored by one and the total is 153.
I lean to Syracuse in this spot even though my numbers have the game being essentially even, with several numbers picking each team to win.
Both teams can score, but both teams are strong defensively as well, making it difficult to predict an over/under wager. Trends would support a lean to the over, although I'd have a hard time making a wager on over such a large number, especially with two decent defensive teams.
Kansas vs. Michigan State
MSU is favored by 1.5 and the total is 138.5.
I'd give the nod to Kansas and the over in this game, although both are far from strong plays. Still, my numbers have Kansas winning the game by a point and my predicted total is 141.
North Carolina vs. Gonzaga
The Tar Heels are favored by 8.5 points and the total is 162.
This is probably the most interesting match-up of the evening, as Gonzaga always presents a bit of a challenge to handicap, especially when facing upper-echelon teams.
From a numbers standpoint, I have the Tar Heels winning by 6 to 10 points, making the side a likely pass.
Although the total is high, I can see the game going over the total, as the Zags won't back down from their uptempo style of play and trend players will note that Gonzaga has played 27 overs and 9 unders when made an underdog.
North Carolina has several trends supporting an under play, so again, I'll like pass.
Lines are much tighter this time of the year and many bettors will cut down the size of their wagers, as the value isn't likely to be there. The one factor that bettors have in their advantage is that the public influences the line to a larger extent in the tournament games, so it's possible to find the occasional solid play.
Have fun and don't go overboard, as there will be games played Saturday and Sunday, along with the championship game.
