Picking the NCAA Tournament Champion
During last year's NCAA Tournament, we took the easy way out and picked all four No. 1 seeds to advance to the Final Four, which they did for the first time ever. This year, however, I wouldn't recommend the same strategy when it comes to filling out your brackets or making a futures wager on the eventual winner.
There is much more parity this season than a year ago and it's easy to see as many as three of the top seeds not making it to the semifinals.
Louisville and North Carolina look to have the easiest road to the Final Four, although nothing is given, while I believe Pittsburgh and Connecticut have it a bit more difficult.
Choosing a winner in your brackets is a bit different than placing a futures bet, so for bracket purposes, you're often better off taking the higher seeds, at least until the Elite 8 games. When you're making a futures wager, it's all or nothing, unless you're in a position to hedge your wager a little bit as the tournament goes along.
When looking at futures bets, finding good value is paramount, so bettors should be willing to do a bit of shopping for the best line before making a wager.
Odds to Win NCAA Basketball Tournament
Louisville +785
Ohio State +20250
Siena +30250
Utah +30250
Wake Forest +4050
West Virginia +4050
Kansas +3550
Boston College +25250
Michigan State +2250
Connecticut +815
BYU +25250
Texas A & M +15250
Purdue +3550
Washington +8050
Marquette +4050
Missouri +3550
California +15250
Memphis +1015
Pittsburgh +645
Oklahoma State +20250
Tennessee +10250
Florida State +15250
Xavier +8050
UCLA +4550
Villanova +4050
Texas +5250
Duke +2250
North Carolina +325
LSU +10250
Butler +25250
Illinois +20250
Gonzaga +2550
Arizona State +6050
Syracuse +4550
Clemson +5250
Oklahoma +1615
The above lines were taken Wednesday morning from The Greek and are subject to change before game time.
Finding Value
When looking at the odds, it's a bit surprising to see North Carolina such a prohibitive favorite, while the other thing that stands out is that Memphis State has fairly similar odds to U Conn, and at some sportsbooks, such as Pinnacle, have lower odds to win it all than the Huskies.
If I'm looking for a bit of a price on a futures bet, Memphis would be the team I would go with, as the Tigers have one of the best, if not the best defenses in the country.
If I'm looking for a bit of a longshot, I'd head to the East, where I believe Duke has an easy time of reaching the finals, where they would like face Pittsburgh, a good squad, but one that isn't going to put any fear into the Blue Devils. At over 20-1, Duke is worth a small wager to pull a bit of an upset.
For bracket players, I'd choose Louisville, Memphis, Duke and North Carolina to advance to the Final Four with the Memphis Tigers coming away with the national championship. It's a bit of a gamble, sure, but isn't that what we're all about?
