2011 Kentucky Derby Selections
Serious horse racing enthusiasts will tell you that races such as the Triple Crown events, the Breeder's Cup, etc., are among the most difficult to handicap. It's hard enough to pick a winner in a race with several good horses, but the marquee events are made up of all good horses.That doesn't stop plenty of people from getting involved, with a number of them being Four Timers, which are people who bet the horse races four times a year: the three Triple Crown races and the Breeder's Cup.
There are two different approaches to the Kentucky Derby. The first is to simply choose who you think the best horse is and back him. The second is to toss out the favorite and look for others whose chances you believe exceed their odds.
We'll go with the second option today for the most part.
In the three and a half years I've been doing this, my record is absolutely horrible, but we're still ahead because of hitting a few longshots in the Breeder's Cup several years ago.
Since I view the big races as merely a fun day, I use the high risk, high reward approach, which naturally lends itself to far more losing days than winning ones.
NOTE: It's 9:30 a.m. EST as I write this and I really would like to know the track condition right before the race, but we'll give it a shot anyway.
My top horses:
Soldat: Currently at 17-1 in the betting, Soldat is one I think will bounce back from a disappointing effort last time, as he was caught on the rail in a suicidal pace of 46.35 in the Florida Derby. He was the favorite in that race and has shown that he can come from just off the pace, which he may have to do here. If the track is wet his chances increase, but his odds will drop a bit.
Mucho Macho Man: Currently at 12-1, the son of Mucho Uno is another horse who can in front or come from slightly off the pace. Ran a solid race last time out, but was parked three wide for most of the trip.
Archarcharch: If this guy wasn't on the rail, would like his chances a bit more, but was surprised to see him at 13-1 late Friday night. Has run on the track before and should be coming down the stretch fast at the finish.
Master of Hounds: The European invader is a surprising 19-1 in the early betting and is a bit of an unknown, having run just once in the United States in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Turf, where he was the favorite and was beaten by three lengths. His dirt debut was a strong one, as he finished second in the UAE Derby.
Have fun today and don't go overboard. The Preakness is just two weeks ago and the Belmont shortly after that, so there will be plenty of other betting opportunities in the near future.
