2011 Preakness Stakes
Although it's part of the Triple Crown, the Preakness States simply doesn't get all of the fanfare as the Kentucky Derby. It's a shame, because the Preakness is generally more of a race that is settled on true ability, while the Kentucky Derby involves a bit more luck. One reason for this is the size of the fields, as the Kentucky Derby allows 20 horses to start, while the Preakness limits the field to 14.The threat of thunderstorms at the Kentucky Derby also made it difficult for those trying to pick in advance, as several horses had a definite advantage if the race was run on an off track. Soldat was liked by a number of people, myself included, who expected the 70-percent chance of thunderstorms would come to pass, which they never did. Aside from several possible thunderstorms on Friday, the weather for the Preakness looks to be perfect and the track should be fast.
Animal Kingdom is the early 2-1 morning line favorite and rightly so, as he ran a huge race in pulling away from the Kentucky Derby field after running 12th early. The big question is can he repeat, especially at such low odds.
Dialed In is the second choice in the betting at 9-2 and his race may have been the most impressive of all in the Derby, as he rallied from dead last to eighth in a race with a snail-like 48.63 half-mile. His finishing four furlongs were clocked in 47.0, the fastest since Secretariat in 1973, provided the race timers can be believed. With an expected faster pace up front here, his finishing kick could loom large.
Mucho Macho Man is the third choice at 6-1 and he finished fast to take third in the Derby. A faster pace is likely to help him, as well, and don't be surprised to see him a bit closer to the leaders in the early going.
Shackleford and Dance City are both at 12-1 and both like to race up front. Dance City didn't run in the Derby due to lack of winnings, while Shackleford set the early pace and finished fourth.
Shackleford is being discounted by most handicappers here, as he was unable to hang on better in the Derby despite slow fractions, but the move to post position 5 from No. 14 will help and he did switch leads down the stretch a bit awkwardly, which didn't help.
There is definitely more speed in this race with Flashpoint, Dance City, Mr. Commons, Astrology and Shackleford, but I'm not ready to discount Shackleford just yet.
Astrology, Sway Away and Midnight Interlude are at 15-1 in the morning line, while six horses are at 20-1 or 30-1, several of which have no business being in this field.
Saturday Update
Here are the current odds as of 6 a.m. EST on Saturday morning:1. Astrology, 13-1
2. Norman Asbjornson, 30-1
3. King Congie, 21-1
4. Flashpoint, 24-1
5. Shackleford, 12-1
6. Sway Away, 14-1
7. Midnight Interlude, 9-1
8. Dance City, 10-1
9. Mucho Macho Man, 6-1
10. Dialed In, 3-1
11. Animal Kingdom, 3-1
12. Isn't He Perfect, 23-1
13. Concealed Identity, 20-1
14. Mr. Commons, 45-1
Final Thoughts and Selections
Under most circumstances winning the Kentucky Derby would be the biggest accomplishment for any 3 year old. In the case of Dialed In, however, winning the Preakness would be the biggest accomplishment, as he stands to collect a $5.5 million bonus if he were to win this race, making it more and more likely that the Derby was merely a prep race for this one.Mucho Macho Man will no doubt get a bit of additional play today due to the untimely death of professional wrestler Randy "Macho Man" Savage on Friday and the horse is a contender, but will likely see a slim reduction in odds due to the Savage connection.
As much as I hate favorites, will use Dialed In as my key horse, with Shackleford, Sway Away and Dance City in the exotics. Those playing trifectas and superfectas will have to include Animal Kingdom and Macho Man and may want to include Astrology for one of the bottom spots.
Best of luck.
