2010 NBA Finals
Two of the most storied franchises in NBA history get together once again in a rematch of the 2008 Finals, as the Boston Celtics visit Los Angeles to take on the Lakers.The oddsmakers are expecting a different outcomee this time around, as the Lakers are a solid -180 favorite (risk $180 to win $100), while the Celtics are +160 (risk $100 to win $160).
The Lakers have several key factors working in their favor, such as home court advantage, the 2-3-2 format and the revenge factor from 2008, although I'm not a big believer that will play much of a factor in this case, even though it will be hyped by the television people.
The Celtics have the advantage of being the deeper team in terms of having a number of guys who step up with their four-headed monster of Pierce, Allen, Garnett and Rondo, each of whom is capable of carrying a team by themselves when they get hot.
I expect the Lakers to use Kobe Bryant to try and slow down Rondo, while Ron Artest will defend Pierce, forcing Garnett and Allen to pick up their games.
The trends in previous NBA Finals point to the home team and the unders having slight advantages, although nothing to get too excited about, which means each game should be handicapped individually as opposed to blindly following any particular wagering strategy.
The series will be dragged out for as long as possible, with the second game not being played until Sunday, something which could help the older Celtics as the series progresses, but likely won't play much of a factor.
Most of the wise guys are betting the Lakers to win the series, but you'll seldom, if ever, find me laying that kind of price and I certainly won't do it here.
It's tough to bet the Celtics at +160, but I likely will make a token wager on Boston.
Instead, I'll watch the first game and see how the Lakers' defensive match-ups work with the intention of making several under bets if Bryant to shut down Rondo, who is really the man who has made the Celtics go in the post-season.
If Bryant really wants to win a title against Boston, he'll realize that what he does defensively is just as important, if not more, than what he does when the Lakers have the ball.
That could bode well for the unders to come through, which is what I'll look for in this series.
