Betting the NBA Conference Finals

Betting the NBA Conference Finals

This is the third installment of our NBA playoff articles and naturally, we'll have one more on the NBA Finals in the next few weeks.

The NBA Conference Finals have probably been the one group where the past results are what you would expect from the NBA playoffs--lots of underdogs covering the spread and plenty of unders.

Using a 10-year sample, underdogs and unders have both hit at close to a 60-percent ratio, although looking at a shorter-term sample shows things reversing themselves a bit in regards to the underdogs.

Underdogs in the Conference Finals

Our 10-year sample shows that away underdogs have gone 55-37-2 against the point spread, while home underdogs are just 5-5 against the spread over the same time span.

But if we were to use a five-year sample size for underdogs, we'd see where they have just been 21-20 against the spread on the road and 2-2 at home. Obviously, the value has gone out of blindly betting the underdogs and the Conference Finals should be looked at on a game-by-game basis. If you like the favorite, by all means, go ahead and bet it, while the same holds true with the underdog.

Totals in the Conference Finals

Betting the unders has been a good strategy in the Conference Finals, with a 55-38-1 record over a 10-year period in games in which the home team is favored. When the road team is favored, the under is 7-4.

More importantly, the under trend has prevailed in a five-year sample size, as well, going 25-16.

The under trend is still ongoing, but much like the underdog trend, is likely to level off t some point in the future.

Still, betting the unders is probably the way to go if you have a wager on each game and don't have a strong opinion on the side or total.