2008 Independence Bowl Preview
Those who like to argue that there are simply too many games need only to point to this year's edition of the Independence Bowl, as Northern Illinois (6-6) travels to the Bayou State to take on Louisiana Tech (7-5). Tech is traveling just 60 miles to the game, so the contest is essentially a home game for the Bulldogs.
Northern Illinois won just two games last year, but first-year coach Jerry Kill had the Huskies playing well despite a few injuries at the quarterback position, and the team's 6-6 record may be a bit misleading, as they lost by a combined 10 points to Minnesota, Western Michigan, and Central Michigan. All three teams are playing in bowl games this year, and also came up just short at Tennessee, losing 13-9.
The Huskies are led by quarterback Chandler Harnish, who threw for over 1,300 yards and rushed for an additional 478. Still, Harnish isn't the type of player to strike fear into opposing defenses, as he threw for just seven touchdowns on the season.
Louisiana Tech doesn't have a big threat at quarterback, either, but do have a solid running back in Daniel Porter, who averaged 5.3 yards a carry in rushing for over 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns this season. Patrick Jackson added eight touchdowns on the ground and rushed for more than 600 yards and a 4.7 average.
Phillip Livas is a solid receiver and punt returner capable of breaking the big play and the Northern Illinois defense will have to be aware of him at all times.
Northern Illinois opened as a small favorite, but La. Tech is now favored by 1.5 points, as slightly more than 70-percent of the wagers have come in on the Bulldogs. The total is at 46.5.
First-year head coaches have usually been a losing proposition in bowl games, covering the point spread just 40-percent of the time, but am not real anxious to go against Northern Illinois in this spot. By the same token, it's hard to know your money is on Louisiana Tech, as well.
Looking at the total, there appear to be some definite advantages to looking at the under, as Louisiana Tech's biggest weakness on defense is against the pass, but Northern Illinois doesn't really have the passing attack to take advantage. The Huskies will throw some, but would probably be content to stay on the ground if the rushing attack is working.
Northern Illinois is solid against the run, which partially negates Tech's main strength, but expect to see the Bulldogs work hard to establish the run. The fewer times the ball is in the air, the better as far as the Bulldogs are concerned.
2* Under 46.5
