Betting the Super Bowl 44 Propositions
When Las Vegas-based professional sports bettor Mark Franco offered to share his top Super Bowl proposition bets with readers once again, we quickly accepted. After all, Franco was 5-2 for a profit of 3.85 units last year when he shared his thoughts with readers on Super Bowl 43.Franco, the owner of Franco Sports (www.francosports.com), helped start VegasInsider in 1997, and has a fifth-place finish in the prestigious Hilton Super Book Contest to his credit.
Franco is a frequent guest on sports talk shows and appears regularly in the Las Vegas Review-Journal.
Here are Franco's top Super Bowl 44 proposition wagers and all lines are taken from the Las Vegas Hilton:
Total Rushing Yards by Saints RB Reggie Bush
The Play: Over 23.5 (-110)Reggie Bush may not see many carries in this game but he always has the speed to break a long run and the Saints will be using him more then usually in their offensive game plan. Bush has rushed for at least 23 yards in four of the last six games. Bush averaged 5.6 yards per carrier this season and if he gets the ball enough in the back field he will rush for over 23 yards.
Longest Rush by Saints RB Reggie Bush
The Play: Over 10.5 (-110)We know Reggie Bush has the speed to break a long run and I see him doing that vs. the Colts. If Bush hits the holes the offensive line open-up look for at least a 15 yard run up the middle or too the outside. Again he will be a big part of their offense and can break a big run.
Total Receiving Yards by Saints RB Reggie Bush
The Play: Over 30.5 (-110)Again my feeling here is Reggie Bush is going to have to be a big part of the game plan and we have seen him catch the ball out of the backfield and make big plays. I look for him to get the opportunities to grab yards after the catch.
Will Saints RB Pierre Thomas Score a Touchdown?
The Play: Yes (+140)I believe the Saints will get a rushing Touchdown and RB Pierre Thomas should get the carries if the Saints are in the red zone. He is the main guy when it comes to the three running backs that get carries for the Saints and I see value here with him plus money.
Total FG Made by Saints Kicker Garrett Hartley
The Play: Over 1.5 (+200)When betting props I always look for value and at +200 for the Saints to make two field goals is something I can't pass up. Weather should not be a factor so Hartley should nail two FG's if given the chance.
Total Number of Saints to Have a Pass Reception
The Play: Under 7.5 (+110)This is the only prop I will go against New Orleans. As much as Drew Brees has thrown the ball around this season I don't see him being able to complete a pass to eight different targets in the game.
Total Number of Saints to Score
The Play: Over 3.5 (-110)The Saints with the weapons they have should be able to have at least three different players to score a touchdown. In this prop the kicker counts as a score whether an extra point or field goal. Some betting shops have Over 2.5 not including the kicker, which is the same bet.
Total Rushing Yards by Saints
The Play: Over 100.5 (-110)The Saints are a team that most people think of as a passing team, but they ran the ball for just over 130 yards per game this season. Their game plan has to be able to run the ball to open up the offense and to keep the Colts off the field.
Franco also is sharing who he likes to cover the point spread in the game, although based on his proposition wagers, it should be relatively easy to decipher.
Who Will Cover the Point Spread?
The Play: Saints +6When handicapping the Super Bowl there are many ways to look at a game. For me my first look is always the underdog and the Saints fit the bill.
The Saints running game will set the tone for their offense and open things up for QB Drew Brees. Indianapolis ranked 24th in the regular season in rushing defense, and when New Orleans faces teams in that class, the Saints had plenty of success. When taking on defenses that ranked in the bottom half of the league in defending the run (17th or worse), New Orleans averaged 154.7 yards/game on the ground (9 games).
The Colts should have trouble running the ball and that will put added pressure on QB Peyton Manning and company. Indy defense has been bend but don't break all season and I think they will be tired come the 4th quarter.
In the last six Super Bowls the team with the better record has not covered the point-spread and three of them have lost outright.
I see the Saints keeping this game close the whole way with a chance to win Super Bowl XLIV outright.
When it comes to proposition betting, remember to always look for the best available lines you can find. The old sports betting adage of "What you save is what you earn," definitely holds true when it comes to propositions, as the odds will vary from sportsbook to sportsbook more than they will when it comes to point spreads and totals.
Have some fun on Super Bowl Sunday and if you tag along with Franco's picks, know that you're following a very well-respected sports handicapper.
