NFL Bye Week Betting
The NFL's decision to implement a bye week, thus making the season one week longer for television ratings, received mixed reaction when it was first announced, but is now firmly entrenched in the minds of football fans everywhere. A bye week is now considered a normal part of the NFL season.
The football bettors, the bye week was something of a problem, as it not only added a new wrinkle into factors to consider when handicapping, it also made a mess of many betting systems in that now you had teams meeting each other which had played an unequal number of games.
Bettors also became accustomed to the bye week and looked for ways to use team's bye week to their advantage and there are several trends that have developed over the years, which give bettors a bit of an edge. We'll look at several of those trends here.
Bet on a Winless Team After Its Bye Week as an Underdog
When the St. Louis Rams traveled to Washington on Oct. 12, 2008, there was plenty of late money coming in on the Rams. The Redskins were favored by 13.5 points in the middle of the week and went off as 11.5-point favorites at many sportsbooks.
The Rams had played horribly all season, being outscored by an average margin of 36.8 to 10.8, but fell into a 17-2 trend, which is simply to bet on any winless team in the fifth week of the season, or later, coming off a bye as an underdog.
It turned out the Rams bettors didn't need any points, as St. Louis pulled off a huge upset, winning the game 19-17.
When looking at any system or trend, a bettor has to ask themselves if the system makes sense, which is the case here. It's obvious that any team still searching for its first win will be putting forth a bit of extra effort each time it takes the field.
The team also has an extra week to hear about how poorly they've been playing from the coaching staff and newspaper reporters, so they're generally grateful for the opportunity to return to the field.
Play a Favorite of 6.5 Points or More the Week Before a Bye
While this trend is 31-7 against the point spread, it is just 1-2 so far in the 2008 season. Still, it is worth considering in your handicapping.
Let's face it, NFL players aren't particularly fond of practice. A big effort the week before a bye can accomplish several things. One, it will help keep the coaching staff from being all over their backs, and secondly, if the team is lucky, a big win might get them an extra day, or even a half-day off. That right there is usually motivation enough for teams to give a bit of extra effort.
There are several other trends, such as playing undefeated favorites off a bye week or betting on underdogs of seven or more points heading into a bye, that have performed well over the years, so it is something worth looking into each week.
As always, bettors shouldn't blindly follow trends, but they can be helpful if a game is on the border of being a play or not, as well as something to consider when thinking of betting on the other team.
The bye week also gives football bettors an extra week worth of wagers, so don't be afraid to pass on a game. There will be plenty of other betting opportunities ahead.
