Yards Per Point Football Betting Systems

Yards Per Point Football Betting Systems

In an earlier article we touched upon the concept of Yards Per Point (YPP) and how it relates to the NFL. Those who have not read the earlier article can do so here Football Betting With Yards Per Point.

Now, we'll look at several betting systems using YPP and how football bettors can use these figures to their advantage.

The first system was one that first came to prominence in the mid 1980s and was known as the Dudley Method. The system was popularized in the now out-of-print book "The Winner's Guide to Pro Football Betting," by Art Glantz and Leigh Cohn. The premise of the system was to use the last four games each teams had played to create your predicted point spread on the game.

Lets use a hypothetical game between Minnesota and Detroit. In its past four games, the Vikings have gained 1,345 yards and allowed 1,352 on defense, while scoring 91 points and allowing 78. Detroit has gained 1,291 yards on offense and allowed 1,510. The Lions have scored 86 points, while giving up 111.

• The first step is to create an Offensive YPP figure for both teams, which are 14.78 (1,345/91) for Minnesota and 15.01 (1291/86) for Detroit.
  

• The second step is to create a defensive average for each team, which is merely diving the total yards allowed by four. For Minnesota, the defensive average is 338 (1352/4), while for Detroit its 377.5(1510/4).
  

• Take each team's defensive average and divide by the opposition's YPP figure to get a predicted score. Minnesota's predicted score will be 25.54, which is (377.5/14.78). Detroit's predicted score will be 22.52 (338/15.01).
  

• Subtract 1.5 points from the road team and give the home team an additional 1.5 points for the predicted score. If the Vikings are the home team, our predicted score will be Minnesota 27.04-21.02. If Detroit is home, our predicted score is Minnesota 24.04-24.02.
  

The one problem with this method is that it doesn't take a team's defensive YPP into consideration, but it is still a useful tool for short-term tendencies. It is used best in conjunction with another YPP method, such as the next one we'll look at.

The Total Dudley YPP Method

This system is quite similar to the Dudley Formula, in that it also uses a four-game average, but uses a team's defensive YPP rating in predicting the outcome of games. We'll use the same teams and statistics from the earlier example.

• The first step is to add Minnesota's offensive yards gained to Detroit's yards allowed and Minnesota's points scored to Detroit's points allowed. This will give us 2,855 (1,345+1,510) and 202 (91+111).
  

• The second step is to add Detroit's yards gained to Minnesota's yards allowed and Detroit's points scored to Minnesota's points allowed. This gives totals of 2,643 (1,291+1,352) and 164 (86+78).
  

• The third step is to create an adjusted offensive YPP for both teams. For Minnesota, divide 2,855 by 202 to get 14.13. For Detroit, divide 2,643 by 164 to get 16.12.
  

• The fourth step is to change our yardage figures into a per-game average. Simply divide Minnesota's offensive yardage figure (2,855) by eight to get 356.88, which is Minnesota's predicted yards gained. Detroit's expected yards gained of 2,643 divided by eight is 330.38. (Remember we're using eight because we have both four games of offensive yards and four games of defensive yards.)
  

• The final step is to divide Minnesota's predicted yards of 356.88 by its adjusted offensive YPP of 14.13 to get a predicted score of 25.26. Dividing Detroit's predicted yards of 330.38 by its adjusted offensive YPP yields a predicted score of 20.49.

As you can see, the Vikings rate nearly two points better with this method and the predicted score is several points less. These are because of the inclusion of Minnesota's defensive YPP rating, which is well above average.

Most bettors using these, or any YPP system, generally look for a difference of at least five points between the predicted outcome and the point spread before making a play.

Remember, there is no correct way or incorrect way to use YPP numbers. You can use them short-term, as these two systems do, or use season statistics. Both will give the football bettor a different method of looking at the teams playing a particular game.

Those who are spreadsheet savvy could probably write an Excel program to cut down on the time doing the calculations. Still, Yards Per Point is a fairly quick method of looking at the games and is a statistic used by many top football bettors.